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Lupine Publishers | Agriculture Open Access Journal
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Analysis of climatic data of the last three decades reveals that there is a noticeable shift in climate and water resources regime of north-east Iraq. Analysis was done on the five major tributaries of Tigris River-Khabur, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Al-Adhiam and Diyala rivers. At first glance, the region appears to have plenty of freshwater, but due to high temporal and spatial variability combined with inadequate infrastructure, water scarcity is widespread. Agriculture is the primary user of freshwater, and therefore, any adverse effect on water availability will have far reaching consequences. For forecasting purposes, SWAT model was chosen for simulation and GCM ensembles were used for long-range forecasts. The paper explores how the population are adjusting to the shift in climate regime and what kinds of climate change adaptation measures are socio-culturally viable. The analysis framework featured separation of freshwater availability into blue and green waters, climate forecasts with a lead time of about half-a-century to 2049-2069 and about one-century to 2080-2099, and feedback from grass-root level of the government and focus groups as to how the population are adjusting and likely to adjust in the future to climate change.
Keywords: Climate change; Adaptation; Agriculture; Northeast iraq
The north-east Iraq, which includes autonomous Kurdistan, is regarded to have adequate freshwater, but due to high spatial and temporal variability, and accessibility issues owing to lack of proper infrastructure, water scarcity is widespread in the region. Freshwater availability is of critical importance for food security, public health and environment protection in the region, but detailed information on water resources and water scarcity is very limited  to address these issues adequately. Adding to the complexity in addressing these issues is the need for conformity of strategies to the social and cultural norms and expectations. Nevertheless, some data exist in disperse and disparate sources, which hitherto have not been used in planning , but can be collated for a coherent and thorough assessment of water resources of the region. This study attempted to achieve that objective, and then, explored the implications in social-cultural context. The quantity and quality of water resources in a basin is impacted by a multitude of factors such as precipitation and other meteorological variables, vegetation and other land cover, natural calamities such as hurricanes and earthquakes, and induced catastrophes such as bushfires. Changes in the quantity and quality of water can also occur with changes in population, climate and land use with alteration in supply and demand. Climate change has the potential to impact the hydrological cycle through the alteration of evapo transpiration and precipitation . Changes also can be unprecedented because the water system could be vulnerable to climate change outside the range of historical events .
Falkenmark  first introduced the concept of blue water and green water. Blue water is water which humans can directly access such as stream flow and groundwater. Green water is water which humans cannot directly access such as evapo transpiration and soil moisture but it is useful for vegetation and agriculture. The blue/ green water notion has provided fresh ideas and new methodologies for water resources management in several regions especially in arid and semi-arid regions where water stress is severe due mainly to increased socioeconomic development and population growth. Blue/green concept can assist in supporting sustainable and equitable water resources management Jansson 1999. In this study SWAT model was chosen to simulate blue/green water due to its popularity, it has been widely used in varied physiographic regions and in various parts of the world [6,7]. SWAT is a physics-based distributed model well recognized for the analysis of the impacts of land management practices on water, sediment, agriculture, and non-point pollution in large complex watersheds . Furthermore, SWAT model is capable of assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological and biochemical cycles on a long term basis . As is usually done, the impacts of climate change for the long-term has been assessed in this study by making forecasts through General Circulation Models (GCMs).
IPCC in its Fifth Assessment Report envisioned four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of future greenhouse gas concentrations, which replaces the SRES proposed by IPCC in its Third Assessment Report. For brevity, this study presents results from three RCPs - low (RCP2.6) which assumes sustained net negative anthropogenic GHG emissions after 2070, medium (RCP4.5) which assumes stabilization without overshoot to 4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing after 2100, and high (RCP8.5) which assumes continued anthropogenic GHG emissions. Coupled Model Inter comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) uses a number of sophisticated GCMs for climate forecasts. In this study six GCMs, namely CCSM4, MIROC-ECM, GFDL-CM2.1, MRI-CGCM3, CNRM-CM3, and IPSLCM5A- LR were selected for ensemble climate change projections in north-east Iraq. The projected temperatures and precipitation were downscaled by BCSD method Maurer 2014. After we analysed the historical data and projected future climatic conditions and availability of water resources, we sought feedback from General Managers of Water Authority and focus groups on how the local population are currently adjusting to already manifest climate change, and how they are likely to adjust to the projected climate change in the future. A General Manager in the Ministry of Water Resources heads each basin who is assisted by engineers, technicians and water monitors.
Tigris River has five major tributaries namely Khabur, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Al-Adhiam and Diyala Rivers (Figure 1). These tributaries are located in the left bank of the Tigris River between latitudes 33.20N and 37.30N and longitudes 42.90E and 46.90E and have significant contributions to Tigris flow. These tributaries are shared between Iraq and Turkey or Iraq and Iran except Al- Adhiam River. The region is mountainous with many springs in the north and east and changes to flat terrain in the south and west. The mountainous areas generally get higher proportion of precipitation with generally typical near-natural nival regime. The characteristics of the basin of each tributary are summarized in Table 1.
Impacts of Climate Change
SWAT model was used for hydrologic simulation and GCMs were used for climate forecasts. Basic data requirements for SWAT included digital elevation model (DEM), land use map, soil map, weather data, and discharge data. DEM was extracted from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTERGDM) with a 30 meter grid and 1*1 degree tiles (http://gdem.ersdac.jspacesystems.or.jp/ tile_list.jsp). The land cover map was obtained from the European Environment Agency (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/ data/global-land-cover-250m) with a 250 meter grid raster for the year 2000. The soil map was collected from the global soil map of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO 1995). Weather data which included daily precipitation, 0.5 hourly precipitations, maximum and minimum temperatures were obtained from the Iraq's Bureau of Meteorology. Monthly stream flow data were collected from the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources/National Water Centre. To evaluate the performance of SWAT, the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm application (SUFI-2) embedded in the SWAT-CUP package  was used. Figure 2 captures the decade wise changes in precipitation for the past three decades. It is evident from the figures that water availability is decreasing with time. This study considers the period 1980- 2010 as the baseline period for comparisons with future scenarios. Figure 3 captures the changes which are expected in the future from GCM outputs fed into SWAT - outputs from SWAT consisting of 320 HRUs for simulation.
Figure 3: The impacts of climate change on the precipitation of the five basins (a) Anomaly based on scenario RCP 2.6 for the period 2049-2069, (b) Anomaly based on RCP 2.6 for 2080-2099, (c) Anomaly based on RCP 4.5 for 2049-2069, (d) Anomaly based on RCP 4.5 for 2080�2099, (e) Anomaly based on RCP 8.5 for 2049-2069, and (f) Anomaly based on RCP 8.5 for 2080-2099.
Climate Change Adaptation
Although climate change is a physical process linking with alterations in climatic variables, it impacts and also is impacted by social processes associated with the way society evolves over time. Climate change has impacts on social, economic, and environmental systems and forms scenarios for food, water, and health security . The capability of mitigating and adapting to climate change influences is dependent on proactive measures adopted by different socioeconomic groups living in differentiated geographical circumstances . Climate change intensifies the vulnerability of the society. It leads to enhanced water scarcity, exposure to diseases and undermining of growth opportunities. The impacts of climate change in northeast of Iraq will vary geographically. The south part which includes Diyala and Al-Adhiam are projected to be most impacted by droughts and shortened growing seasons. Extreme droughts have categorized that region in the last three decades. Severe drought has caused a reduction in agricultural production especially in the areas of rain-fed crop, which resulted in an observed reduction in farmers' income. The social dimension, which influences physical and economic dimensions, mainly boosts vulnerability to climate change. In light of the sharp decline in oil prices and the increase in terrorist operations which have led to the deterioration of the economy, institutional structures, and individual capabilities Iraq is unable to manage the current climate variability and will struggle with projected changes due to insufficient financial resources available for adaptation and mitigation.
Vulnerability in the context of climate change has three components which are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity . For example, agricultural vulnerability to climate change can be described in terms of exposure to increased temperatures, decreased rainfall and thus reduction in water resources. The sensitivity of crop yields can be described through how sensitive the crops are to these changes. Adaptive capacity is defined as the ability of the farmers to adapt to the effects of this exposure and sensitivity by, for example, growing crop varieties that are more drought-resistant. Recent studies stress the significance of socioeconomic factors for the adaptive capacity of a system, especially underlining the essential role of institutions, governance and management in determining the ability to adapt to climate change . The adaptive capacity of any system is fundamentally shaped by human actions and, it influences both the biophysical and social elements of a system. Generally, agricultural adaptation includes two forms of amendments in agricultural production systems. The first strategy is enhanced agricultural diversification through, for example, using drought tolerant varieties to temperature stresses. The second strategy emphasizes crop management practices, for instance, managing critical crop growth stages by not coinciding with very harsh climatic conditions such as mid-season droughts. According to Orindi , shifting the length of the growing period and changing planting and harvesting dates are among the common crop management practices that are used in agricultural adaptation to climate change.
For this study, focus groups of farmers were formed organized by general managers of each catchment. The discussion thread centred on farmers' perception of climate change and the adaptation measures they already have or would take to respond to the negative impacts of climate change. From their answers it became evident that planting trees, crop diversification, changing planting dates, and soil conservation are the major adaptation strategies that farmers recognize as appropriate for rain-fed agriculture. Planting trees - This strategy includes growing trees in the farm to serve as shade against severe temperature. Growing trees and a forestation enhance agricultural productivity, where it often contributes to climate change mitigation through enhanced carbon sequestration . Crop diversification - Farmers grow different crop varieties that have ability to survive in adverse climatic conditions. In addition, growers plant early ripening crop varieties and grow drought tolerant crops and crops that are resistant to temperature stresses. These are significant forms of insurance against rainfall fluctuations . Furthermore, planting diverse crop varieties in the same field or various plots with different crops moderates the risk of whole crop failure because different crops are influenced differently by climate events and thereby gives some minimum assured returns for livelihood security [17,18].
Changing planting dates - Early and late planting is another strategy to adapt to climate change. This strategy enables farmers to protect sensitive growth stages to ensure that these critical stages do not coincide with severe climatic conditions. Soil conservation - Soil conservation practices are to increase productivity on-farm [19-23]. Decreasing rainfall and increasing prolonged periods of drought, due to climate change, are highly likely to reduce crops. Increasing soil health and fertility leads to increase crop productivity, thus serve to moderate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity [24,25].
Northeast Iraq has witnessed declining water availability in the past few decades and the model predictions are that the situation will get worse in the future. These findings may have far reaching consequences because a large area already suffers from per capita water scarcity. Already a majority of the farmers in the focus groups have observed that the climate has become hotter and drier, and the availability of water has decreased significantly especially in the southern region. This fits with the mathematical model inferences. The good part is that most farmers are willing to adopt modern methods to deal with climate change. A common theme that emanated from the focus groups is that a large proportion of farmers are poor and they cannot sustain consecutive crop losses or very low yields. Some of them have quit farming and have moved into or seeking alternative livelihood. For the stability of the social fabric, it is desirable to entice those people back into farming and for that to happen, financial support would be necessary. However, a large portion of the population is Muslim, and therefore preferably, finance source, destination and transaction process should be free from interest (riba), gambling (maysir), uncertainty (gharar), coercion (ikrah), and forbidden (haram) - directives of Islamic law.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
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Lupine Publishers | Fertilizer Effects on Nutrient Elements, Total Polyphenols and Anti-oxidant Contents of Roselle (Hibiscus sabdariffa) Leaves
Lupine Publishers| Agriculture Open Access Journal
Keywords: Roselle; Hibiscus sabdariffa; Fertilizer; Phenols; Antioxidants and fruit yield
Materials and Methods
Chemicals and reagentsABTS (2,2'-azino-bis (3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sufonic acid), potassium persulfate were purchased from Sigma-Aldrich of St. Louis, MO, USA. Folin Ciocalteu's phenol reagent was purchased from MP Biomedicals of Solon, OH, USA. Water and methanol were purchased from Fisher Scientific of Fair Lawn, BJ, USA.
Experiment and plant samplesA field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of the applied fertilizers at planting time on roselle plants of Senegal accession during the 2014 growing season at Southern University's research farm, Baton Rouge, Louisiana which has a subtropical climate (30.5240N and 91.1900W and elevation of 22m). The area has an average precipitation of 1700mm and the average annual temperature is 19.70C. The field has a silty clay loam soil with a pH of 7.1. The seeds of Senegal accession were planted in the 2x2 cell-pack trays in the greenhouse at the beginning of April, 2014. Seedlings were hand-transplanted into the field one month after germination. A completely randomized design with a total nine applications as treatments. These treatments were the control; 3, 6 and 9# (lb=454g)/30.48m. of organic fertilizer 4-2-2, respectively; 3, 6 and 9# (454g)/30.48m of organic fertilizer 8-5-5, respectively; and 3 and 6# (lb=454g)/30.48 m. of inorganic fertilizer 13-13-13, respectively. Each treatment consisted of 16 plants spaced at 6 feet (1.83m) between plants within a 3.5ft (1.07m) row. Between row spacing was 8 feet (2.44m.). Fertilizers were applied and incorporated on top of the raised bed. Seedlings were planted one day after fertilizer applications. Leaves were randomly collected in late July from branches at waist height from 10 plants of each treatment.
Nutrient elemental analysisLeaves in the brown paper bags were dried at 500C in the Precision Thelco Laboratory oven for 8 hours in the oven and then ground using Thomas-Wiley Model 4 grinder with a 30 mesh screen. The ground samples in the vials were subject to one-hour of drying before they were stored in the desiccator to prevent moisture contamination. Three individual 0.5g of composite ground leaf samples from each treatment were placed in 50mL Digi-tubes (SCP Sciences) and were digested using DEENA automatic digester. Each digested sample in the Digi tube was brought up to a total volume of 20mL with distilled water. The solution with digested sample was vacuum-filtered with a 1.0 micron Digi-filter. The filtrate was analyzed by SPECTRO ARCOS ICAP for Al, Bo, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Mo, P, K, NA, S and Zn. Separately, 0.15g of dried leaf sample was used for determining the amount of carbon and nitrogen using LECO CN Analyzer.
Sample preparation for total phenol and antioxidant activity determinationThe method of sample preparation was adopted from Xu  and Zhen . A 100mg of each dried and ground leaf sample was measured and placed in a volumetric flask. Twenty-five mL of 70% (v/v) methanol/water with 0.1% acetic solution was added into the flask. The sample extraction was then put in ultrasonic water bath for 10 minutes followed by shaking at room temperature for overnight. The extract of each sample was then filtered through 0.45um filter. The filtrate was used for the Folin-Ciocalteu and ABTS radical scavenging assays.
Phenolic content determination (Folin-Ciocalteu assay)The Folin-Ciocalteu assay with modifications  used by Zhen  was adopted for the determination of the total phenolic content of the leaves. 40ul of the prepared leaf extract was mixed with 900ul diluted Folin Ciocalteu's reagent followed by incubation at room temperature for 5 minutes. Then, 400ml of 15% sodium carbonate was added. The mixture was allowed to react at room temperature for 45 minutes. The UV absorption of the mixture solution at wavelength of 752nm was measured against a blank solution. The standard curve was measured based on the prepared gallic acid standard solution (0.38, 0.19, 0.095 and 0.475mg/ml). The result was transformed as mg/g of gallic acid. The results were calculated from the mean of three replicates.
In vitro antioxidant activity (ABTS radical scavenging assay)The procedure of the decolonization of the ABTS radical cation  used by Zhen  was adopted for the determination of antioxidant activity. 38.4 mg of ABTS and 6.6 mg of potassium per sulfate were co-dissolved in 10ml of water and stored for 16 hours in the dark environment to form stable radical action (ABTS+). The stored radical solution was then diluted using ethanol to a concentration with UV absorption of 0.70+/-0.20 at734nm. 900ul of the diluted ABTS radical working solution was mixed with 10ul of the leaf extract followed by 20 minutes of reaction at room temperature. The decolonization of the mixed solution indicates that antioxidant compounds in the extract quenched ABTS radical actions. There was a quantitative relationship between the reduction absorbance at 734nm and the concentration antioxidants present in the sample . The standard curve was built up by plotting the concentrations of Trolox against the percentage of inhibition. The value of antioxidant capacity of the sample was calculated as Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity. The final result was expressed as the % of antioxidant per dry weight basing on the calculation from the mean of three replicates.
Results and Discussion
Figure 1: Effects of the type and rate of fertilizer applied at planting time on fresh roselle fruit yield in kg/plant. Note: # is denoted as lb. (454 g) of fertilizer applied per 100 feet (30.48 m) row.
Figure 2: Effects of the type and rate of fertilizer applied at planting time on total polyphenol and antioxidant contents of roselle leaves in % of sample dry weight. Note: # is denoted as lb. (454 g) of fertilizer applied per 100 feet (30.48 m) row.Figure 3 shows the effects of the type and rate of fertilizer applied at planting time on (A) macro-nutrients and (B) micro-nutrients of roselle leaves. The results when the effects were compared to that of the Control treatment, showed that (a) 3# of organic fertilizer 4-2-2 and 3#, 6# and 9# of organic fertilizer significantly (P<0.05) increased N content of the leaves, (b) all fertilizer treatments had no significant effect on P content of the leaves, (c) 9# of organic fertilizer 4-2-2 significantly (P<0.05) increased K content of the leaves, (d) all fertilizer treatments had no significant effect on Ca content of the leaves, (e) 9# of organic fertilizer 4-2-2 , 6# and 9# of organic fertilizer 8-5-5 significantly (P<0.05) increased Mg content of the leaves, (f) 3#, 6# and 9# of organic fertilizer and 6# of inorganic fertilizer 13-13-13 significantly (P<0.05) increased S content of the leaves, (g) all fertilizer treatments had no significant effect on Cu and Fe contents of the leaves, (h) 3# and 6# of organic fertilizer significantly (P<0.05) increased B content of the leaves, (i) 3# and 9# of organic fertilizer 4-2-2, 9# of organic fertilizer 8-5-5 and 3# and 6# of inorganic fertilizer 13-13-13 significantly increased Mn content of the leaves and (j) 9# of organic fertilizer 4-2-2, 3#, 6# and 9# of organic fertilizer 8-5-5 and 6# of inorganic fertilizer significantly increased Zn content of the leaves. The results of this study showed inconsistent in nutrient elemental contents of plants in response to fertilizer treatments. In general, N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Mn, and Zn were significantly increased by selective fertilizer types and rates while Cu and Fe were not significantly affected by the fertilizer applications.
Figure 3: Effects of the type and rate of fertilizer applied at planting time on (A) macro-nutrients and (B) micro-nutrients of roselle leaves. Note: # is denoted as lb. (454 g) of fertilizer applied per 100 feet (30.48 m) row. Macro-nutrients are expressed in % of dry weight while micro-nutrients are expressed in PPM in dry weight.
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